every ~5 minutes a pump.fun token "graduates" — its bonding curve fills and it becomes tradable on a real market. most of them die within the hour. rugdex watches every graduation live and shows you, per token, the evidence for whether this one is set up to die. every number below is measured from real on-chain data, scored against thousands of resolved outcomes, and — where it's a prediction — validated out-of-sample before it's allowed to render. nothing here is a buy signal. more on that at the bottom.
the row itself
each row is one graduation, newest on top. WATCHING = inside its scoring window (15m / 30m / 1h toggle) with a countdown. when the window closes the row resolves: RUGGED = price fell ≥90% from the graduation price, DUMP = fell but less than 90%, SURVIVED = at or above it. the big % on resolved rows is the price change vs the graduation price at that horizon.
who launched it
DEV 3rd · 1/2 rugthe deployer wallet's track record BEFORE this launch
this is their 3rd launch; of the 2 prior, 1 rugged. ☠ SERIAL DEV (red) = 3+ launches with ≥60% rugged. computed only from launches that resolved before this one — no hindsight. click it for the full rap sheet with on-chain receipts.
→ a serial dev is the single loudest warning on the board. treat their launches as exit liquidity collection.
⚠ CREW ×12 · 9/11 rugthis token's earliest buyers also bought early in 12 prior launches
deployers rotate wallets to dodge rap sheets; the sniping/bundling crew around them usually doesn't. we cluster launches by shared first-20 buyers (prior launches only, graduated ≥1h before this one). 9 of the 11 with known outcomes rugged.
→ coordination history. a fresh dev wallet + a known crew = the rap sheet they were trying to hide.
how it was launched
BUNDLElaunch buys were coordinated (multi-wallet, same-block pattern)
supply was loaded by a cluster at creation rather than bought organically.
→ bundled launches dump harder than clean ones in our data. pairs with the top5 chip below.
top5 92% · highthe top 5 wallets hold 92% of supply
the risk label is data-mined from ~1,200 resolved grads: top5 ≥95% with no single whale ≈ 74% rug rate; ≥90% ≈ 58%; base is ~42%.
→ concentration is the strongest single tell. careful with the inverse though — one giant whale (top1 ≥80%) often means the operator PROPS the price for an hour and kills it later. propped ≠ safe.
⚡ instant / 🌱 organichow fast it climbed the bonding curve before graduating
instant (≤2min) = a manufactured launch — 44% rug rate in our held-out study. organic (>10min of real buying) = 12%.
→ manufactured launches are for the people who manufactured them, not for you.
what the tape says (pre-graduation data — our moat)
📼 38%P(dead within 1h) from how it climbed the curve
a model over time-to-graduate × how clumped the first 2 seconds of buying were, trained on thousands of resolved grads and only displayed because it beats the naive base rate out-of-sample (it stops rendering site-wide if it ever fails that test). base rate is ~42% — so 25% is meaningfully safer than average, 55% meaningfully worse.
→ calibrated odds, not a verdict. read it as a prior: at 55%, a coin flip says you lose everything within the hour.
🩸 74%74% of post-graduation sell volume is pre-grad insiders cashing out
wallets that bought on the bonding curve BEFORE graduation, now selling into the fresh market. measured over the observed swaps (tooltip shows the window).
→ the single most direct 'you are the exit liquidity' meter on the board. high % while WATCHING = the people who made the token are leaving through you.
⏳ 61%@2x61% of pre-grad-bought supply is sitting at ≥2× its cost basis
reconstructed from every wallet's actual curve buys. supply deep in profit is supply with every incentive to sell.
→ overhang = latent sell pressure. it doesn't say when — it says how heavy the ceiling is.
☠ 15% ↓40death clock: P(dead by +1h) given it has survived this long
was 40% at graduation; surviving the first minutes cuts the odds hard (the first 15 minutes decide most deaths). pure survival math from the full graduation history.
→ expectation management while a row is WATCHING — the number falling is the token earning its survival.
the calls
CALL: DIESthe index's own pre-committed prediction, locked at graduation
only fires on the highest-confidence setup (coordinated cluster holding ≥95% with no whale and few funding sources). scored publicly on the board — the hit-rate headline at the top is this call's full track record vs its base rate.
→ this is us putting our number where our data is. watch it be right or wrong in real time.
💀 DIES / 🛡 LIVESyour call — free, locks on tap, scored at settle
pre-commit before the window closes; ✓/✗ when it resolves.
→ the honest way to test your own read against the board.
so… how do I trade with this?
the uncomfortable truth, from our own trading research: these numbers are far better at telling you what NOT to touch than what to buy. we tested dozens of "buy the good-looking ones" strategies against real fills — detection works, buying off it doesn't, because every bot reads the same tape and the price has already moved by the time you act. anyone selling you a memecoin buy-signal is selling you the top. what the board is actually for:
- avoid — serial dev, known crew, top5 ≥90%, instant-grad, 📼 above base, 🩸 high: each is a measured reason this one dies. stacking them is how you skip the obvious corpses.
- calibrate — if you ape anyway, the numbers set your expectations: at 📼 50% you should be sized and stop-lossed like a coin flip on total loss within the hour, because that's what it is.
- time your exit, not your entry — 🩸 insider selling and ⏳ overhang are about who's leaving and how much wants to leave. if you hold a token whose insiders are 70%+ of sell flow, you're late, not early.
- verify — every badge links to pump.fun / solscan. nothing here asks to be trusted; it asks to be checked.
/climbing shows tokens still on the curve (progress, not prediction). /revivals shows dead tokens getting coordinated buy-bursts (spectacle — ~63% of revivals go nowhere). neither is a menu. if a number is ever missing, it's because the data behind it is stale and we hide rather than guess.
🔓 $RUGDEX — what holding unlocks
today, everything above is free. when $RUGDEX launches (100% fair — no presale, no team allocation), the board splits into a free tier and a holder tier. the rule: free shows you the problem, holding shows you the answer.
FREE · alwaysthe spectacle stays public, forever
the live feed, rug rates, waves, ☠ SERIAL DEV badges, CALL: DIES + its scored track record, and your own 💀/🛡 calls. the index's credibility layer is never paywalled — a public call you can't verify is worthless.
→ watch, verify, make your calls. no wallet needed.
🔒 HOLD tier 1the actionable per-token reads unlock
the concentration read (top1/top5 + risk label), 📼 tape odds, 🩸 insider exits, ⏳ overhang, the ☠ death clock, and the full launch-by-launch deployer rap sheets. these are the numbers that decay in minutes — the ones worth holding for.
→ connect wallet → sign a message (no gas, no transaction) → your $RUGDEX balance is checked on-chain → unlocked for ~45 minutes, then silently re-checked. sell below the bar and it re-locks. no subscription, no account — the token IS the key.
🩸 FREE BETgot dead tokens? that's a free bet
every dead pump.fun bag in your wallet is a verifiable on-chain receipt that you got rugged. /revenge scans for them (works on ANY dead pump.fun coin, not just ones we tracked), shows your Rekt Score, and at launch: burn a corpse → claim a flat $RUGDEX drop that unlocks the holder tier + a shareable Rekt Badge + the free bet below. one claim per corpse, capped per wallet, funded by the protocol's own buyback — when the faucet is empty, it's empty.
→ got rugged before? that loss is your free key to the tools that would have flagged it — and a free swing at winning it back.
🎫 THE BEThow the free bet works — house-funded, winnings yours
the house stakes a small bet FOR you on the rug index — betting against the exact behavior that rugged you. you own the position: if it wins, the payout is yours in real SOL. if the round voids, the stake returns to the house (it was never your money). flat-sized, budget-capped, house-funded — a free swing, not an airdrop.
→ your first bet on the index, on us. the winnings are the point; the habit is the product.
why gate at all? the live signals are worthless to you if every bot reads them for free — gating freshness is what keeps the reads worth having. and every unlock is a wallet holding $RUGDEX bought on the open market: usage IS the buy pressure. the numbers themselves are never altered by tier — free and gated see the same truth, free just sees less of it.